Machida Zelvia

0 - 0

Tokyo Verdy

Machida Zelvia hosted Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League, finishing 0-0. Goals: Na Sang-Ho (120' pen), I. Someno (120' pen), Y. Nakayama (120' pen), I. Dresevic (120' pen), Y. Arai (120' pen), H. Shimoda (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 40 trades across 8 waves, achieving 15% precision with a net result of $-7788.53 (ROI: -73.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 1.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $737. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-737.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Machida Zelvia -0.5. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Machida Zelvia -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 17.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-350.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Machida Zelvia -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Machida Zelvia. Average expected value was 29.2%, with a combined stake of $5400. The sharpest edge was on Machida Zelvia -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 19.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 21 trades lost, netting $-5400.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5 and Over 1. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $650. The sharpest edge was on Over 1 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.1% — a 23.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.17. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-650.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 74' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 74'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy 0 and Tokyo Verdy -0.25. Average expected value was 28.4%, with a combined stake of $1248. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$78.72. ### Wave 7 — Minute 77' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 77'. Machida Zelvia made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 83' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 83'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy 0 and Tokyo Verdy -0.25. Average expected value was 62.2%, with a combined stake of $650. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 43.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting +$19.75.

- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 36.4% (43.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 40.7% (39.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 74.1% vs market's 36.4% (37.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 36.4% (37.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -0.25: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 55.9% (24.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-737.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 12 trades, 1W/8L/3V, $-1982.11 (ROI: -58.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 0W/8L/3V, $-2282.17 (ROI: -77.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 13 trades, 0W/10L/3V, $-2437.25 (ROI: -78.4%)

Possession was 62–38 in Machida Zelvia's favor. Machida Zelvia had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Tokyo Verdy's 5 (0 on target). Corners: 8-2.