Kyoto Sanga

0 - 4

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Kyoto Sanga hosted Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League, finishing 0-4. Goals: S. Nakamura (29'), A. Suzuki (49'), M. Kato (52'), T. Matsumoto (75'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 6 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-200.86 (ROI: -77.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.88; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 2.04.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 32.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.8% — a 12.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.86. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sanfrecce Hiroshima +0.5 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima +1. Average expected value was 14.2%, with a combined stake of $27. The sharpest edge was on Sanfrecce Hiroshima +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$31.14. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 35'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga +1 and Kyoto Sanga +1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $13. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 28.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-13.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 41'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Kyoto Sanga +1.5. Average expected value was 33.1%, with a combined stake of $112. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-112.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 47'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga +1. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 28.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-12.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 50'. A. Suzuki scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga +0.5 and Kyoto Sanga +1.5 and Under 3.25 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 30.8%, with a combined stake of $85. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 33.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-85.00.

- **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga +1.5: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 58.8% (33.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga +1.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 58.8% (32.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 49.5% (32.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga +1.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 58.8% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga +1.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 58.8% (28.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$20.14 (ROI: +53.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-68.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-71.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-72.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 56–44 in Kyoto Sanga's favor. Kyoto Sanga had 3 shots (2 on target) versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 16 (8 on target). Corners: 1-9.