Kyoto Sanga2 - 6Kashiwa Reysol
Kyoto SangaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 35', 41', 52' — and still finish $-325?
Match Overview
Kyoto Sanga hosted Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League, finishing 2-6. Goals: Y. Koizumi (1'), H. Arai (2'), H. Arai (3'), Y. Kakita (39'), D. Sugioka (45'), Rafael Elias (67'), Y. Komi (87'), T. Kubo (90'), Y. Komi (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-325.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 11.2%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Kashiwa Reysol leading 1-2 at 41'. Y. Kakita scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.9% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Kashiwa Reysol leading 1-3 at 52'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 5.5. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $309. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.0% probability versus the market's implied 56.2% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.78. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-309.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 78.0% vs market's 56.2% (21.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 78.0% vs market's 56.2% (21.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 56.2% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 56.2% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 78.0% vs market's 56.5% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-162.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-163.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in Kyoto Sanga's favor. Kyoto Sanga had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Kashiwa Reysol's 16 (9 on target). Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-162.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-162.00.
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