Kawasaki Frontale1 - 0Tokyo Verdy
Kawasaki FrontaleWhy did AI enter 2 times at 62', 73' — and still finish $-925?
Match Overview
Kawasaki Frontale hosted Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Y. Wakizaka (73'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-925.05 (ROI: -17.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 62'. Tokyo Verdy made 3 substitutions. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 24.5%, with a combined stake of $2454. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 32.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2454.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 73'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy -1 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 41.9%, with a combined stake of $2877. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 45.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1528.95.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 51.9% (45.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 55.6% (41.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 42.1% (32.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 42.1% (32.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy 0: AI saw 73.6% vs market's 42.1% (31.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-240.45 (ROI: -11.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-484.60 (ROI: -16.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61–39 in Kawasaki Frontale's favor. Kawasaki Frontale had 5 shots (1 on target) versus Tokyo Verdy's 7 (4 on target). Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -17.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -17.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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