Kawasaki Frontale

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Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Kawasaki Frontale hosted Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League, finishing 0-1. Goals: S. Nakamura (44'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 5 waves, achieving 37% precision with a net result of $-257.68 (ROI: -79.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 3.4 to 3.27.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.10. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale +0.5. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $207. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-207.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale +0.5. Average expected value was 13.8%, with a combined stake of $85. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 9.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-85.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 47'. S. Nakamura scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 12.1%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$12.72. ### Wave 5 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 0-1 at 75'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale +1. Average expected value was 33.1%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$11.50.

- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale +1: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 50.0% (30.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale +1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 50.0% (30.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 50.0% (30.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 60.1% vs market's 48.5% (11.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 59.0% vs market's 48.5% (10.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.10 (ROI: +101.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-60.76 (ROI: -78.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-60.76 (ROI: -78.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-65.50 (ROI: -90.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-80.76 (ROI: -90.7%)

Possession was 59–41 in Kawasaki Frontale's favor. Kawasaki Frontale had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 20 (7 on target). Corners: 5-9.