Kawasaki Frontale

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Machida Zelvia

Kawasaki Frontale hosted Machida Zelvia in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: T. Yengi (40'), Y. Wakizaka (89' pen), K. Tani (120' pen), K. Mochiyama (120' pen), I. Dresevic (120' pen), Y. Wakizaka (120' pen), S. Fujio (120' pen), A. Sasaki (120' pen), N. Lavi (120' pen), R. Yamahara (120' pen), Y. Maruyama (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-362.00 (ROI: -74.3%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.86 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.89 to 3.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 41.7%, with a combined stake of $462. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 75.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 27.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-387.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale +0.5. Average expected value was 30.6%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 28.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$12.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 0-1 at 44'. T. Yengi scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 28.6%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.3% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 24.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3.64. ### Wave 4 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 0-1 at 48'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 56.2% — a 29.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.78. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$9.36.

- **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 56.2% (29.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 84.8% vs market's 56.2% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale +0.5: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 40.0% (28.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale +0.5: AI saw 68.0% vs market's 40.0% (28.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 48.5% (27.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.00 (ROI: +150.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/1L/2V, $-69.36 (ROI: -42.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-149.32 (ROI: -93.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-149.32 (ROI: -93.3%)

Possession was 64–36 in Kawasaki Frontale's favor. Kawasaki Frontale had 20 shots (9 on target) versus Machida Zelvia's 6 (2 on target). Corners: 9-2.