Kashiwa Reysol

0 - 1

Urawa

Kashiwa Reysol hosted Urawa in the J1 League, finishing 0-1. Goals: R. Watanabe (58'), R. Watanabe (59'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 5 waves, achieving 85% precision with a net result of +$4637.09 (ROI: +73.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.04 to 2.32.

### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Urawa 0. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Urawa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 17.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$230.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Urawa 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $3639. The sharpest edge was on Urawa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 16.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$2657.09. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Urawa leading 0-1 at 59'. R. Watanabe scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kashiwa Reysol +0.5. Average expected value was 47.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Kashiwa Reysol +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 46.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1750.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Urawa leading 0-1 at 62'. R. Watanabe scored moments ago. Urawa made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Urawa. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Urawa (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 72.2% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$500.00.

- **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Kashiwa Reysol +0.5: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 36.4% (46.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Kashiwa Reysol +0.5: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 36.4% (44.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 17'** — Asian Handicap Urawa 0: AI saw 64.3% vs market's 46.5% (17.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Urawa 0: AI saw 65.6% vs market's 48.8% (16.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Urawa 0: AI saw 64.9% vs market's 48.8% (16.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2205.41 (ROI: +71.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2201.68 (ROI: +71.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$230.00 (ROI: +115.0%)

Possession was 51–49 in Kashiwa Reysol's favor. Kashiwa Reysol had 11 shots (0 on target) versus Urawa's 13 (4 on target). Corners: 6-4.