Kashiwa Reysol

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Kawasaki Frontale

Kashiwa Reysol hosted Kawasaki Frontale in the J1 League, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Hosoya (73'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1101.00 (ROI: -16.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 2.06.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale. Average expected value was 42.1%, with a combined stake of $407. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.6% probability versus the market's implied 27.9% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.59. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-407.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale -0.5. Average expected value was 29.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 27.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale 0 and Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 28.8%, with a combined stake of $3296. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 43.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-793.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $1299. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1299.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Kashiwa Reysol leading 1-0 at 74'. M. Hosoya scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale -1. Average expected value was 53.3%, with a combined stake of $1390. The sharpest edge was on Kawasaki Frontale -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 50.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1598.50.

- **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 46.5% (50.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 46.5% (50.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale 0: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 36.4% (43.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale 0: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 36.4% (43.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Kawasaki Frontale 0: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 44.4% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$403.75 (ROI: +17.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$401.25 (ROI: +17.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-407.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1299.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 49–51 in Kashiwa Reysol's deficit. Kashiwa Reysol had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Kawasaki Frontale's 13 (4 on target). Corners: 4-9.