Kashiwa Reysol4 - 2JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa ReysolWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 48', 54' — and still finish $-351?
Match Overview
Kashiwa Reysol hosted JEF United Chiba in the J1 League, finishing 4-2. Goals: Y. Kakita (35'), Y. Koizumi (39'), R. Kuboniwa (45'), M. Hosoya (76'), I. Takahashi (85'), T. Koga (89'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 27% precision with a net result of $-351.00 (ROI: -89.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.89; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 2.75. Average expected value was 42.2%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-60.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 48' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Kashiwa Reysol leading 2-1 at 48'. R. Kuboniwa scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting JEF United Chiba -1.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 41.8%, with a combined stake of $326. The sharpest edge was on JEF United Chiba -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 44.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-298.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Kashiwa Reysol leading 2-1 at 54'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting JEF United Chiba -1.5. Average expected value was 44.5%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on JEF United Chiba -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 41.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$7.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap JEF United Chiba -1.5: AI saw 94.0% vs market's 50.0% (44.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap JEF United Chiba -1.5: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 50.0% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap JEF United Chiba -1.5: AI saw 95.2% vs market's 53.3% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 55.6% (25.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 55.6% (25.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$7.00 (ROI: +87.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-149.00 (ROI: -91.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-149.00 (ROI: -91.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Kashiwa Reysol's favor. Kashiwa Reysol had 14 shots (9 on target) versus JEF United Chiba's 13 (4 on target). Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -89.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$7.00.
A tough session at -89.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$7.00.
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