Kashima2 - 0Vissel Kobe
KashimaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 50', 69' — and still finish +$28?
Match Overview
Kashima hosted Vissel Kobe in the J1 League, finishing 2-0. Goals: H. Hayashu (68'), K. Anzai (70'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$27.55 (ROI: +8.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 1.84; the home moneyline shortened from 2.56 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vissel Kobe -0.25. Average expected value was 17.8%, with a combined stake of $37. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-37.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.9% — a 7.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.79. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-12.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Kashima leading 1-0 at 69'. H. Hayashu scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 60.5%, with a combined stake of $265. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 84.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.7% — a 37.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.14. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$76.55.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 46.7% (37.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 48.3% (37.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 48.3% (37.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.2% vs market's 48.3% (36.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.2% vs market's 48.3% (36.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$54.85 (ROI: +93.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$54.85 (ROI: +93.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-37.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-45.15 (ROI: -28.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in Kashima's favor. Kashima had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Vissel Kobe's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 8-7.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +8.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$54.85.
A positive result with +8.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$27.55. Top performer: Active Trader at +$54.85.
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