Kashima3 - 0Mito Hollyhock
KashimaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 20', 25' — and still finish $-1200?
Match Overview
Kashima hosted Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League, finishing 3-0. Goals: S. Morooka (58'), S. Morooka (59'), Leo Ceara (71'), Leo Ceara (79'). Mito Hollyhock received a red card (T. Ushizawa, 30'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 20' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mito Hollyhock -0.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mito Hollyhock -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mito Hollyhock -0.5. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70–30 in Kashima's favor. Kashima had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Mito Hollyhock's 6 (2 on target). Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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