FC Tokyo2 - 1Tokyo Verdy
FC TokyoWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 15', 25' — and still finish $-3508?
Match Overview
FC Tokyo hosted Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League, finishing 2-1. Goals: K. Morita (29'), S. Muroya (41'), M. Nagakura (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3508.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 1.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2. Average expected value was 53.5%, with a combined stake of $1262. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 14.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1262.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy -0.5. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.4% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $2046. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.5% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 13.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2046.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 63.5% vs market's 48.5% (14.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -0.5: AI saw 69.5% vs market's 56.3% (13.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -0.5: AI saw 69.5% vs market's 56.3% (13.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 48.6% vs market's 36.4% (12.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy -0.5: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 54.8% (11.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1022.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1024.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1262.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 69–31 in FC Tokyo's favor. FC Tokyo had 17 shots (9 on target) versus Tokyo Verdy's 11 (3 on target). Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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