FC Tokyo

0 - 3

JEF United Chiba

FC Tokyo hosted JEF United Chiba in the J1 League, finishing 0-3. Goals: Carlinhos Junior (6'), M. Himeno (73'), M. Hidaka (79'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 6 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of $-2080.00 (ROI: -24.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Tokyo -0.5. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on FC Tokyo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 17.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting FC Tokyo -0.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on FC Tokyo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.8% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-501.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 38'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FC Tokyo 0 and JEF United Chiba. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on JEF United Chiba (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 49.9% probability versus the market's implied 41.7% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.4. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$400.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 63'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Tokyo +0.5. Average expected value was 30.6%, with a combined stake of $1312. The sharpest edge was on FC Tokyo +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 27.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1312.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** JEF United Chiba leading 0-1 at 70'. JEF United Chiba made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.

- **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap FC Tokyo +0.5: AI saw 85.9% vs market's 58.8% (27.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap FC Tokyo +0.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 58.8% (27.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap FC Tokyo -0.5: AI saw 62.8% vs market's 43.5% (19.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Tokyo -0.5: AI saw 62.0% vs market's 43.5% (18.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Tokyo -0.5: AI saw 61.8% vs market's 43.5% (18.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-167.00 (ROI: -16.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-855.50 (ROI: -23.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-857.50 (ROI: -23.4%)

Possession was 63–37 in FC Tokyo's favor. FC Tokyo had 22 shots (3 on target) versus JEF United Chiba's 14 (3 on target). Corners: 6-2.