Fagiano Okayama

2 - 0

Shimizu S-pulse

Fagiano Okayama hosted Shimizu S-pulse in the J1 League, finishing 2-0. Goals: K. Shirai (11'), Leo Gaucho (79'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$49.38 (ROI: +85.1%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.09 to 2.14.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama -0.25. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $28. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.8% probability versus the market's implied 46.7% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.14. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$31.38. ### Wave 2 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse -1. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fagiano Okayama leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse -1. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fagiano Okayama leading 1-0 at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse -1.5. Average expected value was 50.1%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 48.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$14.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fagiano Okayama leading 1-0 at 42'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$8.00.

- **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse -1.5: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 36.4% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse -1.5: AI saw 84.0% vs market's 36.4% (47.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse -1: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 51.9% (30.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse -1: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 51.9% (30.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 11'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse -1: AI saw 67.4% vs market's 50.0% (17.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$31.38 (ROI: +112.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$11.00 (ROI: +84.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$11.00 (ROI: +84.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 39–61 in Fagiano Okayama's deficit. Fagiano Okayama had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Shimizu S-pulse's 11 (2 on target). Corners: 2-4.