Fagiano Okayama2 - 3Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano OkayamaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 36', 57', 70' — and still finish $-263?
Match Overview
Fagiano Okayama hosted Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League, finishing 2-3. Goals: Y. Yokoyama (8'), Y. Yokoyama (56'), Leo Gaucho (71'), S. Uejo (81'), Leo Gaucho (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of $-263.05 (ROI: -75.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 2.05.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 36'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama +0.5. Average expected value was 42.4%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$12.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-2 at 57'. Y. Yokoyama scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama +1.5. Average expected value was 60.8%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 58.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$19.20. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-2 at 70'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama +1 and Under 3.5 and Under 2.75. Average expected value was 42.8%, with a combined stake of $328. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 36.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-294.25.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama +1.5: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 38.5% (58.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama +1.5: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 38.5% (58.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama +0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 40.0% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama +0.5: AI saw 79.8% vs market's 40.0% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 81.5% vs market's 45.5% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$5.25 (ROI: +87.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-134.15 (ROI: -78.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-134.15 (ROI: -78.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in Fagiano Okayama's deficit. Fagiano Okayama had 18 shots (8 on target) versus Cerezo Osaka's 14 (5 on target). Corners: 8-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -75.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$5.25.
A tough session at -75.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$5.25.
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