Cerezo Osaka

3 - 2

V-varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka hosted V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League, finishing 3-2. Goals: R. Yamasaki (25' pen), Thiago Andrade (28'), S. Tanaka (63'), Matheus Jesus (72'), S. Kagawa (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-6669.00 (ROI: -74.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.94; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2.03.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki -0.5. Average expected value was 29.1%, with a combined stake of $686. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-686.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki -0.5. Average expected value was 14.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and V-varen Nagasaki -0.5 and Draw and Cerezo Osaka 0 and V-varen Nagasaki and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $6382. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 74.3% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** 2 of 12 trades won, netting $-4082.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 34.9%, with a combined stake of $1701. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 92.6% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 30.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1701.00.

- **Minute 31'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 61.9% (30.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 31'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 92.5% vs market's 61.9% (30.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 60.0% (14.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki -0.5: AI saw 62.7% vs market's 48.5% (14.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 74.1% vs market's 60.0% (14.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-686.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-2888.00 (ROI: -71.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-2895.00 (ROI: -71.6%)

Possession was 66–34 in Cerezo Osaka's favor. Cerezo Osaka had 21 shots (8 on target) versus V-varen Nagasaki's 6 (4 on target). Corners: 8-2.