Cerezo Osaka6 - 1Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo OsakaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 49' — and still finish $-29?
Match Overview
Cerezo Osaka hosted Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League, finishing 6-1. Goals: S. Tanaka (12'), Y. Yokoyama (22'), Y. Yokoyama (39'), Y. Kimura (42'), Y. Kimura (43'), Y. Nogami (47'), Thiago Andrade (55'), S. Sakuragawa (87'), S. Sakuragawa (89'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-29.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 2.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 1-0 at 15'. S. Tanaka scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nagoya Grampus -1. Average expected value was 40.4%, with a combined stake of $9. The sharpest edge was on Nagoya Grampus -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-9.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 3-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 3-1 at 49'. Y. Nogami scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Nagoya Grampus -1.5 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $20. The sharpest edge was on Nagoya Grampus -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 98.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 55.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-20.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1.5: AI saw 98.3% vs market's 42.6% (55.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1.5: AI saw 98.1% vs market's 42.6% (55.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 58.8% (36.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 56.1% vs market's 45.5% (10.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-9.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in Cerezo Osaka's deficit. Cerezo Osaka had 15 shots (9 on target) versus Nagoya Grampus's 12 (4 on target). Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-9.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-9.00.
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