Avispa Fukuoka

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Vissel Kobe

Avispa Fukuoka hosted Vissel Kobe in the J1 League, finishing 0-1. Goals: K. Yamawaki (24'), M. Thuler (45'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of $-344.51 (ROI: -85.9%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 4.91 to 4.8.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka +0.5. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 18.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-60.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka +0.5. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka +0.5. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $308. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.4% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 20.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-308.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$4.92. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Vissel Kobe leading 0-1 at 50'. M. Thuler scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Avispa Fukuoka +1. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $21. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$22.57.

- **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +1: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 40.0% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +1: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 40.0% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +1: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 45.5% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +0.5: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 52.4% (20.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +0.5: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 52.4% (19.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$2.00 (ROI: +22.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-143.26 (ROI: -86.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-143.26 (ROI: -86.3%)

Possession was 46–54 in Avispa Fukuoka's deficit. Avispa Fukuoka had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Vissel Kobe's 9 (3 on target). Corners: 6-1.