Avispa Fukuoka1 - 1Kyoto Sanga
Avispa FukuokaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 18', 47', 60', 74' — and still finish +$1974?
Match Overview
Avispa Fukuoka hosted Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: Rafael Elias (28'), A. Sani Brown (74'), M. Okugawa (120' pen), Y. Maejima (120' pen), T. Matsuda (120' pen), T. Nara (120' pen), S. Yoon (120' pen), Y. Tsujioka (120' pen), S. Asada (120' pen), K. Maeda (120' pen), M. Shigemi (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 80% precision with a net result of +$1973.85 (ROI: +36.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka +0.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$140.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Kyoto Sanga leading 0-1 at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka +1. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $1389. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 29.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1597.35. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Kyoto Sanga leading 0-1 at 60'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 74' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Kyoto Sanga leading 0-1 at 74'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 17.9%, with a combined stake of $2806. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 24.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting $-296.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +1: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 46.5% (29.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka +1: AI saw 75.5% vs market's 46.5% (29.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga 0: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 56.3% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga 0: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 56.3% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$718.85 (ROI: +30.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$698.50 (ROI: +29.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$556.50 (ROI: +79.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40–60 in Avispa Fukuoka's deficit. Avispa Fukuoka had 11 shots (1 on target) versus Kyoto Sanga's 15 (5 on target). Corners: 8-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +36.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$718.85.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +36.6% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$718.85.
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