Odisha

2 - 3

Minerva Punjab

Odisha hosted Minerva Punjab in the Indian Super League, finishing 2-3. Goals: M. Kipgen (70'), V. Suhair (71'), B. Osuji (89'), Dani Ramirez (90'), K. Hantal (90'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 5 waves, achieving 21% precision with a net result of $-397.20 (ROI: -37.3%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 1 to 1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.66 to 7.58.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Odisha +1. Average expected value was 21.5%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Odisha +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 19.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Odisha +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 2 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 59.9%, with a combined stake of $590. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 96.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 46.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 16 trades lost, netting $-590.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 48'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Odisha +0.5. Average expected value was 62.7%, with a combined stake of $158. The sharpest edge was on Odisha +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 38.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-158.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Odisha +0.5. Average expected value was 35.6%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Odisha +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 32.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-5.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Minerva Punjab leading 0-1 at 71'. V. Suhair scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Minerva Punjab. Average expected value was 49.3%, with a combined stake of $308. The sharpest edge was on Minerva Punjab (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.7% — a 34.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.19. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$355.80.

- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 96.0% vs market's 50.0% (46.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 50.0% (45.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 96.0% vs market's 52.1% (44.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 52.1% (43.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 40.0% (42.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-5.00 (ROI: -55.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 3W/8L, $-90.10 (ROI: -21.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 3W/8L, $-144.10 (ROI: -30.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-158.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 42–58 in Odisha's deficit. Odisha had 4 shots (1 on target) versus Minerva Punjab's 20 (6 on target). Corners: 1-5.