NorthEast United2 - 0Mohammedan
NorthEast UnitedWhy did AI enter 5 times at 33', 41', 48', 60', 74' — and still finish $-84?
Match Overview
NorthEast United hosted Mohammedan in the Indian Super League, finishing 2-0. Goals: J. Samperio (19'), D. Singh (45'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-84.09 (ROI: -63.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.75; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 33' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 1-0 at 33'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mohammedan -1.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $16. The sharpest edge was on Mohammedan -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 48.2% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 9.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$15.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 1-0 at 41'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Over 3. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Over 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 19.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 2-0 at 48'. D. Singh scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 47.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 2-0 at 60'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$2.91. ### Wave 5 — Minute 74' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 2-0 at 74'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Over/Under Over 3: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 51.5% (19.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.70 (ROI: +167.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$5.31 (ROI: +44.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-92.10 (ROI: -82.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in NorthEast United's favor. NorthEast United had 19 shots (7 on target) versus Mohammedan's 7 (2 on target). Corners: 10-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -63.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$6.70.
A tough session at -63.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$6.70.
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