NorthEast United4 - 1Chennaiyin
NorthEast UnitedWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-1516 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
NorthEast United hosted Chennaiyin in the Indian Super League, finishing 4-1. Goals: J. Samperio (5'), J. Samperio (45'), L. Renthlei (70' OG), L. Renthlei (71' OG), L. Renthlei (81'), L. Vanlalvunga (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1516.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.19 to 1.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** NorthEast United leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chennaiyin -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 32.7%, with a combined stake of $1516. The sharpest edge was on Chennaiyin -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 35.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1516.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin -1: AI saw 86.9% vs market's 51.9% (35.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 40.0% (25.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1516.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 35–65 in NorthEast United's deficit. NorthEast United had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Chennaiyin's 9 (5 on target). Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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