Minerva Punjab0 - 2Mumbai City
Minerva PunjabWhat went wrong? 8 trades, $-249 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Minerva Punjab hosted Mumbai City in the Indian Super League, finishing 0-2. Goals: Valpuia (80'). Minerva Punjab received a red card (L. Augustine, 67'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-249.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.81; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.26 to 2.09.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5 and Under 1.25. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $249. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-249.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 66.8% vs market's 48.8% (18.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 48.8% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-92.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-157.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61–39 in Minerva Punjab's favor. Minerva Punjab had 10 shots (2 on target) versus Mumbai City's 7 (5 on target). Corners: 7-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-92.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-92.00.
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