Minerva Punjab

1 - 0

Chennaiyin

Minerva Punjab hosted Chennaiyin in the Indian Super League, finishing 1-0. Goals: L. Hnamte (84' OG). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 6 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-1710.00 (ROI: -20.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.01.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chennaiyin -1. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chennaiyin -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.4% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 18.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Chennaiyin -1 and Under 2.5 and Chennaiyin -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $4527. The sharpest edge was on Chennaiyin -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 19.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-1385.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.1% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1375.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chennaiyin -0.5. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chennaiyin -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 83' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 83'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chennaiyin 0. Average expected value was 46.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Chennaiyin 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin 0: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 36.4% (44.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin 0: AI saw 79.8% vs market's 36.4% (43.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin -1: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 57.1% (19.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin -1: AI saw 76.7% vs market's 57.1% (19.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Chennaiyin -1: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 56.3% (18.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-200.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-375.00 (ROI: -25.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-567.50 (ROI: -17.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-567.50 (ROI: -17.4%)

Possession was 60–40 in Minerva Punjab's favor. Minerva Punjab had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Chennaiyin's 10 (1 on target). Corners: 7-4.