Kerala Blasters

3 - 1

Mohammedan

Kerala Blasters hosted Mohammedan in the Indian Super League, finishing 3-1. Goals: R. Mahitosh (42'), Franchu (44'), V. Bertomeu (59'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 3 waves, achieving 22% precision with a net result of $-7008.00 (ROI: -58.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.97; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.35 to 1.52.

### Wave 1 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 23'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Mohammedan -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $2059. The sharpest edge was on Mohammedan -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 31.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2059.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Mohammedan -1 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.8%, with a combined stake of $3028. The sharpest edge was on Mohammedan -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-3028.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mohammedan leading 0-1 at 44'. Franchu scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Kerala Blasters -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Draw and Mohammedan 0 and Over 2.5 and Mohammedan -0.5. Average expected value was 14.8%, with a combined stake of $7000. The sharpest edge was on Mohammedan -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 18.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 5 of 14 trades won, netting $-1921.00.

- **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Mohammedan -1: AI saw 78.9% vs market's 45.5% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Mohammedan -1: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 44.4% (31.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 23'** — Asian Handicap Mohammedan -1: AI saw 76.0% vs market's 44.4% (31.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Mohammedan -1: AI saw 75.5% vs market's 44.4% (31.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Mohammedan -0.5: AI saw 61.4% vs market's 42.6% (18.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$487.50 (ROI: +69.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-1984.50 (ROI: -62.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-2375.00 (ROI: -54.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-3136.00 (ROI: -80.7%)

Possession was 64–36 in Kerala Blasters's favor. Kerala Blasters had 15 shots (8 on target) versus Mohammedan's 8 (1 on target). Corners: 2-3.