Kerala Blasters

2 - 1

Goa

Kerala Blasters hosted Goa in the Indian Super League, finishing 2-1. Goals: K. Yoke (49'), M. Nemil (63'), F. Ndiaye (81'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 7 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$358.53 (ROI: +154.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.86; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.85.

### Wave 1 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kerala Blasters +0.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Kerala Blasters +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.1% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 23.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$4.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kerala Blasters -0.5. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Kerala Blasters -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.2% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.70. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Kerala Blasters -0.5 and Kerala Blasters. Average expected value was 23.9%, with a combined stake of $186. The sharpest edge was on Kerala Blasters -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 17.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$344.06. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Kerala Blasters leading 1-0 at 49'. K. Yoke scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Goa -0.5. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Goa -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.7% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$15.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Kerala Blasters leading 1-0 at 53'. K. Yoke scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.8%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.2% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Nemil's equalizer at 63'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.7%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Nemil's equalizer at 63'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.57.

- **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Kerala Blasters +0.5: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 58.8% (23.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Kerala Blasters -0.5: AI saw 55.2% vs market's 37.4% (17.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Goa -0.5: AI saw 61.7% vs market's 44.4% (17.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Kerala Blasters -0.5: AI saw 53.4% vs market's 36.4% (17.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Kerala Blasters -0.5: AI saw 52.8% vs market's 36.4% (16.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 6W/2L, +$207.94 (ROI: +161.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 6W/2L, +$134.68 (ROI: +151.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$15.90 (ROI: +113.6%)

Possession was 39–61 in Kerala Blasters's deficit. Kerala Blasters had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Goa's 13 (3 on target). Corners: 6-4.