Jamshedpur0 - 1Bengaluru
JamshedpurWhy did AI enter 4 times at 18', 25', 39', 50' — and still finish +$9144?
Match Overview
Jamshedpur hosted Bengaluru in the Indian Super League, finishing 0-1. Goals: R. Williams (38'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 90% precision with a net result of +$9143.75 (ROI: +87.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.38 to 2.11.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bengaluru -0.5. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$175.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Bengaluru -0.5 and Under 1.5 and Draw and Bengaluru 0. Average expected value was 12.3%, with a combined stake of $5500. The sharpest edge was on Bengaluru 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 9 of 11 trades won, netting +$4975.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bengaluru leading 0-1 at 39'. R. Williams scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Jamshedpur +0.5 and Bengaluru. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $3207. The sharpest edge was on Jamshedpur +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 33.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$2903.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bengaluru leading 0-1 at 50'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 15.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.6% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1090.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Jamshedpur +0.5: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 48.8% (33.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Jamshedpur +0.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 50.0% (32.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Jamshedpur +0.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 50.0% (32.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Bengaluru 0: AI saw 60.1% vs market's 36.4% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Bengaluru 0: AI saw 59.0% vs market's 36.4% (22.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$3452.25 (ROI: +109.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 6W/1L, +$2827.00 (ROI: +80.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 6W/1L, +$2689.50 (ROI: +76.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$175.00 (ROI: +87.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in Jamshedpur's favor. Jamshedpur had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Bengaluru's 9 (5 on target). Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$3452.25.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.9% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$3452.25.
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