Goa

1 - 1

ATK Mohun Bagan

Goa hosted ATK Mohun Bagan in the Indian Super League, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Maclaren (55'), R. Kharbudon (67'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 6 waves, achieving 72% precision with a net result of +$5629.77 (ROI: +57.1%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 2.04.

### Wave 1 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Goa +0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $2700. The sharpest edge was on Goa +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 5 of 6 trades won, netting +$2485.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 64.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Goa +0.5 and Under 1.5 and Draw and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.7%, with a combined stake of $4154. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 91.7% probability versus the market's implied 65.2% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.533. **Result:** 5 of 6 trades won, netting +$2019.77. ### Wave 4 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** ATK Mohun Bagan leading 0-1 at 58'. J. Maclaren scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Goa +1. Average expected value was 39.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Goa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 38.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1750.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** ATK Mohun Bagan leading 0-1 at 62'. Goa made 6 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Goa +1. Average expected value was 42.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Goa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.3% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 39.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$875.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** ATK Mohun Bagan leading 0-1 at 67'. R. Kharbudon scored moments ago. Goa made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting ATK Mohun Bagan. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on ATK Mohun Bagan (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 34.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Goa +1: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 36.4% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Goa +1: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 36.4% (38.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Goa +1: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 36.4% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Moneyline ATK Mohun Bagan: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 45.5% (34.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 91.7% vs market's 65.2% (26.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1968.95 (ROI: +67.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1739.24 (ROI: +51.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1736.58 (ROI: +51.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$185.00 (ROI: +92.5%)

Possession was 45–55 in Goa's deficit. Goa had 8 shots (2 on target) versus ATK Mohun Bagan's 21 (4 on target). Corners: 1-9.