Chelsea

0 - 1

Manchester City

Chelsea hosted Manchester City in the FA Cup, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Semenyo (72'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 80% precision with a net result of +$3122.50 (ROI: +66.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 2 to 1.88; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.31 to 4.42.

### Wave 1 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Manchester City and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1654.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 64'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$33.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Manchester City leading 0-1 at 72'. A. Semenyo scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea +1. Average expected value was 40.5%, with a combined stake of $1200. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1935.00.

- **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +1: AI saw 78.3% vs market's 37.4% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +1: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 37.4% (39.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +1: AI saw 78.1% vs market's 43.5% (34.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1658.50 (ROI: +66.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1204.00 (ROI: +60.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$260.00 (ROI: +130.0%)

Possession was 44–56 in Chelsea's deficit. Chelsea had 6 shots (1 on target) versus Manchester City's 9 (4 on target). Corners: 4-4.