SC Freiburg3 - 1SC Braga
SC FreiburgWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-404 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
SC Freiburg hosted SC Braga in the UEFA Europa League, finishing 3-1. Goals: L. Kubler (19'), J. Manzambi (41'), L. Kubler (72'), P. Victor (79'). SC Braga received a red card (M. Dorgeles, 6'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-404.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.93; the home moneyline shortened from 1.88 to 1.71.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Braga -0.75. Average expected value was 15.5%, with a combined stake of $404. The sharpest edge was on SC Braga -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-404.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-404.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in SC Freiburg's favor. SC Freiburg had 19 shots (8 on target) versus SC Braga's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.71 — SC Braga 1.41. Corners: 4-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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