SC Freiburg

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Aston Villa

SC Freiburg hosted Aston Villa in the UEFA Europa League, finishing 0-3. Goals: Y. Tielemans (41'), E. Buendia (45'), M. Rogers (58'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$2.50 (ROI: +13.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 2.07; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.8 to 5.7.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 13.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.5% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00.

- **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 62.3% vs market's 48.8% (13.6pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.50 (ROI: +105.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 51–49 in SC Freiburg's favor. SC Freiburg had 4 shots (2 on target) versus Aston Villa's 17 (6 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 0.22 — Aston Villa 2.08. Corners: 1-8.