Nottingham Forest

1 - 0

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest hosted Aston Villa in the UEFA Europa League, finishing 1-0. Goals: C. Wood (71' pen). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 7 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$1672.50 (ROI: +14.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.04; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.58 to 2.88.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (system_S5) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$308.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Aston Villa 0 and Nottingham Forest and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 6.2%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 41.2% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 8.9 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa 0. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $3730. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.0% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 16.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$1965.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$799.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa -0.5. Average expected value was 39.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 37.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.

- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -0.5: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 40.0% (37.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -0.5: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 40.0% (37.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -0.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 40.0% (36.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 83.0% vs market's 66.7% (16.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 82.8% vs market's 66.7% (16.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$608.00 (ROI: +17.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$602.50 (ROI: +16.9%) - **system_S5**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$308.00 (ROI: +154.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, +$154.00 (ROI: +3.8%)

Nottingham Forest had 11 shots (5 on target) versus Aston Villa's 0 (0 on target).