FC Midtjylland0 - 2Beşiktaş
FC MidtjyllandWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-10 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FC Midtjylland hosted Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League, finishing 0-2. Goals: M. Rashica (70'), O. Kokcu (76' pen). FC Midtjylland received a red card (M. Erlic, 53'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.73 to 1.62; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.75 to 1.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 44.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 85.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 40.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-10.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 44.4% (40.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 85.0% vs market's 44.4% (40.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-5.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-5.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in FC Midtjylland's favor. Corners: 4-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-5.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-5.00.
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