Aston Villa

4 - 0

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa hosted Nottingham Forest in the UEFA Europa League, finishing 4-0. Goals: O. Watkins (36'), E. Buendia (57' pen), J. McGinn (77'), J. McGinn (80'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 6 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-10392.00 (ROI: -100.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.9.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -0.75. Average expected value was 16.5%, with a combined stake of $438. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-438.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -0.5. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $4000. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 13.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-4000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -1 and Draw and Nottingham Forest -1.5. Average expected value was 37.4%, with a combined stake of $3750. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 48.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-3750.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 1-0 at 43'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -1. Average expected value was 58.8%, with a combined stake of $504. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 56.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-504.00.

- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 93.0% vs market's 36.4% (56.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 40.0% (48.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 40.0% (47.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1.5: AI saw 91.6% vs market's 54.8% (36.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1.5: AI saw 91.4% vs market's 54.8% (36.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-438.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-3207.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-3214.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-3333.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 51–49 in Aston Villa's favor. Aston Villa had 18 shots (10 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.5 — Nottingham Forest 0.61. Corners: 6-2.