Waalwijk

1 - 1

Roda

Waalwijk hosted Roda in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. van den Hurk (52'), J. Uneken (90'), L. van Gelderen (120' pen), D. van Kaam (120' pen), J. Deom (120' pen), R. van Eijma (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 5 waves, achieving 61% precision with a net result of +$4120.32 (ROI: +43.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.04 to 1.94.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Roda 0. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Roda 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw and Roda 0. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $3726. The sharpest edge was on Roda 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 27.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$3261.49. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Roda -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $3101. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.1% probability versus the market's implied 65.2% — a 16.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.533. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$520.33. ### Wave 4 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Waalwijk +0.5 and Roda. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Waalwijk +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 28.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 89' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Roda leading 0-1 at 89'. Roda made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.

- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Waalwijk +0.5: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 50.6% (28.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Waalwijk +0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 50.6% (27.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Roda 0: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 36.4% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Roda 0: AI saw 63.2% vs market's 36.4% (26.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Roda 0: AI saw 60.1% vs market's 36.4% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$1917.63 (ROI: +44.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$1839.19 (ROI: +41.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +51.9%)

Possession was 53%–48% in Waalwijk's favor. Waalwijk had 5 shots (2 on target) versus Roda's 0 (0 on target). Corners: 2-0.