Utrecht

3 - 2

Heerenveen

Utrecht hosted Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, finishing 3-2. Goals: A. Stepanov (46'), D. Vente (54'), M. van der Hoorn (56'), S. El Karouani (58'), J. Trenskow (77'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 5 waves, achieving 39% precision with a net result of $-102.65 (ROI: -12.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.94; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 2.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Heerenveen. Average expected value was 70.7%, with a combined stake of $47. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 45.0% probability versus the market's implied 25.7% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.89. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-47.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heerenveen -0.5. Average expected value was 36.6%, with a combined stake of $154. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 22.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-154.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Heerenveen and Draw. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $211. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.2% probability versus the market's implied 28.6% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.5. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-211.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $72. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.2% probability versus the market's implied 34.5% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.9. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-72.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Utrecht leading 1-0 at 48'. A. Stepanov scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Over 1.5 and Utrecht. Average expected value was 29.8%, with a combined stake of $368. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 11 trades won, netting +$381.35.

- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen -0.5: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 51.5% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen -0.5: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 52.6% (21.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.3% (21.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen -0.5: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 53.3% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.8% (21.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$88.25 (ROI: +39.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, +$20.26 (ROI: +6.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-10.17 (ROI: -7.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-47.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-154.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 41–59 in Utrecht's deficit. Utrecht had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Heerenveen's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Utrecht 1.77 — Heerenveen 1.22. Corners: 8-6.