Utrecht

2 - 0

Fortuna Sittard

Utrecht hosted Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-0. Goals: D. de Wit (39'), D. Min (65'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 10% precision with a net result of $-355.00 (ROI: -96.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.01; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fortuna Sittard -1.25. Average expected value was 30.0%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Fortuna Sittard -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 16.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-60.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Utrecht leading 1-0 at 51'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fortuna Sittard -1.5 and Fortuna Sittard -0.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $303. The sharpest edge was on Fortuna Sittard -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 37.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-291.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Utrecht leading 2-0 at 69'. D. Min scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00.

- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard -1.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 50.0% (37.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard -0.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 48.3% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard -0.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 48.3% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard -1.25: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 53.2% (16.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard -0.5: AI saw 65.2% vs market's 48.3% (16.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$2.00 (ROI: +20.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-145.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-152.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 59–41 in Utrecht's favor. Utrecht had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Fortuna Sittard's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: Utrecht 2.09 — Fortuna Sittard 0.33. Corners: 2-4.