Twente4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
TwenteWhy did AI enter 3 times at 33', 52', 59' — and still finish $-1181?
Match Overview
Twente hosted Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, finishing 4-0. Goals: T. van den Belt (58'), T. van den Belt (59'), K. Hlynsson (71'), D. Rots (78'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1181.00 (ROI: -52.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.98.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sparta Rotterdam -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Sparta Rotterdam -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$50.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sparta Rotterdam -0.5. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Sparta Rotterdam -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 49.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Twente leading 1-0 at 59'. T. van den Belt scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $731. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.7% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-731.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 60.0% (21.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap Sparta Rotterdam -1: AI saw 63.9% vs market's 51.9% (12.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1181.00 (ROI: -52.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Twente's favor. Twente had 26 shots (13 on target) versus Sparta Rotterdam's 9 (1 on target). Corners: 9-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -52.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -52.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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