Twente

1 - 1

NEC Nijmegen

Twente hosted NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Orjasaeter (10'), B. Linssen (36'), B. Linssen (37'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 1.99; the home moneyline shortened from 2 to 1.63.

### Wave 1 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 83'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NEC Nijmegen 0. Average expected value was 34.9%, with a combined stake of $1337. The sharpest edge was on NEC Nijmegen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 32.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 48.2% (32.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 48.2% (32.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 48.2% (31.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)

Possession was 49%–51% in Twente's deficit. Twente had 12 shots (7 on target) versus NEC Nijmegen's 18 (5 on target). Expected goals: Twente 1.19 — NEC Nijmegen 1.61. Corners: 1-8.