Telstar

4 - 1

Sparta Rotterdam

Telstar hosted Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, finishing 4-1. Goals: M. Zonneveld (31'), J. Hardeveld (33'), S. van Duijn (72'), S. van Duijn (78'), J. Seedorf (88'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-5250.00 (ROI: -100.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the home moneyline shortened from 2.48 to 2.28.

### Wave 1 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Hardeveld's equalizer at 33'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Sparta Rotterdam 0. Average expected value was 19.5%, with a combined stake of $2201. The sharpest edge was on Sparta Rotterdam 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 24.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2201.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 51'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.3% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 10.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Telstar leading 2-1 at 73'. S. van Duijn scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sparta Rotterdam -1. Average expected value was 47.7%, with a combined stake of $1549. The sharpest edge was on Sparta Rotterdam -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 45.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1549.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 78' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Telstar leading 2-1 at 78'. S. van Duijn scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 33.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.2% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Sparta Rotterdam -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 51.9% (45.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Sparta Rotterdam -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 51.9% (45.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 57.9% (29.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Sparta Rotterdam 0: AI saw 67.0% vs market's 42.1% (24.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Sparta Rotterdam 0: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 42.1% (24.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2275.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-2775.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 50%–50% in Telstar's deficit. Telstar had 5 shots (1 on target) versus Sparta Rotterdam's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Telstar 0.46 — Sparta Rotterdam 0.75. Corners: 4-1.