Telstar

3 - 0

Heracles

Telstar hosted Heracles in the Eredivisie, finishing 3-0. Goals: G. Offerhaus (71'), T. Noslin (73'), J. Hardeveld (78'). Heracles received a red card (L. Kulenovic, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 9 waves, achieving 42% precision with a net result of $-562.45 (ROI: -8.3%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Telstar -1.25. Average expected value was 18.2%, with a combined stake of $534. The sharpest edge was on Telstar -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$453.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heracles -1. Average expected value was 4.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Heracles -1 and Telstar -1.5 and Telstar and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 15.7%, with a combined stake of $3063. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1333.66. ### Wave 4 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 12.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heracles -1. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Heracles -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Telstar -0.5. Average expected value was 6.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$350.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heracles -0.5. Average expected value was 3.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 9 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 61.9% (20.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$453.90 (ROI: +85.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$113.15 (ROI: +7.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/5L, $-929.50 (ROI: -20.4%)

Possession was 45–55 in Telstar's deficit. Telstar had 12 shots (7 on target) versus Heracles's 7 (1 on target). Corners: 5-7.