Sparta Rotterdam

2 - 3

Excelsior

Sparta Rotterdam hosted Excelsior in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-3. Goals: G. Vianello (14' OG), A. Zagre (50'), A. Santos (53'), N. Naujoks (62'), M. Zonneveld (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 6 waves, achieving 90% precision with a net result of +$372.88 (ROI: +72.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior -0.5. Average expected value was 66.9%, with a combined stake of $158. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.8% probability versus the market's implied 52.9% — a 41.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.89. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$139.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Excelsior leading 0-1 at 15'. G. Vianello scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior +0.5. Average expected value was 29.5%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 27' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Excelsior leading 0-1 at 27'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior +1. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 31.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Excelsior leading 0-1 at 43'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Excelsior and Over 2.75. Average expected value was 31.7%, with a combined stake of $323. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 90.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 31.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$213.46. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Excelsior leading 0-1 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 18.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$6.64. ### Wave 6 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Excelsior leading 0-2 at 51'. A. Zagre scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sparta Rotterdam +1.5 and Over 3.5 and Over 4.5. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $20. The sharpest edge was on Sparta Rotterdam +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 28.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$21.48.

- **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior -0.5: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 52.9% (41.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior -0.5: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 53.2% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior -0.5: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 54.1% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Moneyline Excelsior: AI saw 90.0% vs market's 58.8% (31.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Moneyline Excelsior: AI saw 90.0% vs market's 58.8% (31.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$136.30 (ROI: +80.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$119.30 (ROI: +68.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$117.28 (ROI: +68.2%)

Possession was 53–47 in Sparta Rotterdam's favor. Sparta Rotterdam had 17 shots (4 on target) versus Excelsior's 16 (4 on target). Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.72 — Excelsior 0.95. Corners: 5-2.