Roda

1 - 1

Waalwijk

Roda hosted Waalwijk in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-1. Goals: D. Cleonise (51'), J. Kruiver (90'), T. Kalinauskas (90'). OddsFlow deployed 25 trades across 8 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$5597.82 (ROI: +46.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Waalwijk 0. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Waalwijk 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Waalwijk 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 15.2%, with a combined stake of $3568. The sharpest edge was on Waalwijk 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 18.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$2064.32. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.1% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1050.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system_S5_live) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $1200. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1200.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 2 models (system_S5_live, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Waalwijk 0 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $912. The sharpest edge was on Waalwijk 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.7% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 23.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$812.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Waalwijk leading 0-1 at 52'. D. Cleonise scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system_S5_live) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Waalwijk and Roda +0.5. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $3973. The sharpest edge was on Roda +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 41.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$2573.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Waalwijk leading 0-1 at 67'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Roda +1. Average expected value was 26.6%, with a combined stake of $1140. The sharpest edge was on Roda +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 23.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$798.00.

- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Roda +0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 38.5% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Roda +0.5: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 38.5% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Waalwijk 0: AI saw 67.7% vs market's 44.4% (23.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Roda +1: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 58.8% (23.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Roda +1: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 58.8% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$2077.32 (ROI: +50.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$1832.61 (ROI: +44.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$914.88 (ROI: +45.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$500.00 (ROI: +71.4%) - **system_S5_live**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$273.00 (ROI: +25.2%)

Roda had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Waalwijk's 0 (0 on target).