PEC Zwolle1 - 0Heracles
PEC ZwolleWhy did AI enter 4 times at 17', 25', 36', 65' — and still finish +$6395?
Match Overview
PEC Zwolle hosted Heracles in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Garcia MacNulty (19'), K. Kostons (84'). Heracles received a red card (S. Scheperman, 63'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$6394.73 (ROI: +109.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 2.02; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting PEC Zwolle -0.5. Average expected value was 10.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on PEC Zwolle -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$140.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** PEC Zwolle leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Heracles -1.5 and Under 3.5 and Heracles -1. Average expected value was 31.3%, with a combined stake of $4139. The sharpest edge was on Heracles -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 39.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$4338.23. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** PEC Zwolle leading 1-0 at 36'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 22.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** PEC Zwolle leading 1-0 at 65'. Heracles down to 10 men (S. Scheperman red card 63'). 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 8.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.833. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$416.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Heracles -1: AI saw 76.1% vs market's 36.4% (39.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Heracles -1: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 36.4% (39.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Heracles -1.5: AI saw 75.0% vs market's 51.3% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Heracles -1.5: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 51.3% (23.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 62.8% vs market's 40.0% (22.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2925.29 (ROI: +113.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2912.94 (ROI: +113.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$556.50 (ROI: +79.5%)
Match Statistics
PEC Zwolle had 6 shots (4 on target) versus Heracles's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +109.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2925.29.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +109.5% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2925.29.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.