PEC Zwolle

0 - 2

Feyenoord

PEC Zwolle hosted Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, finishing 0-2. Goals: A. Hadj Moussa (79'), A. Hadj Moussa (87'). OddsFlow deployed 30 trades across 6 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of $-77.67 (ROI: -12.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 1 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline shortened from 4.65 to 4.05.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Feyenoord +0.75. Average expected value was 32.6%, with a combined stake of $51. The sharpest edge was on Feyenoord +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 14.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$50.79. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Feyenoord +1. Average expected value was 20.2%, with a combined stake of $96. The sharpest edge was on Feyenoord +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.7% probability versus the market's implied 56.2% — a 13.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.78. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$74.86. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Feyenoord +1 and Feyenoord. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $141. The sharpest edge was on Feyenoord +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 13.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$143.68. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $69. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-69.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting PEC Zwolle +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $276. The sharpest edge was on PEC Zwolle +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** All 12 trades lost, netting $-276.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $8. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-2.00.

- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +0.75: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 49.5% (14.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +1: AI saw 62.6% vs market's 48.8% (13.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +1: AI saw 62.6% vs market's 48.8% (13.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +1: AI saw 61.7% vs market's 48.1% (13.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +0.75: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 50.3% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$74.86 (ROI: +78.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$50.79 (ROI: +99.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-27.55 (ROI: -23.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, $-87.42 (ROI: -46.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 3W/6L, $-88.35 (ROI: -47.2%)

Possession was 48–52 in PEC Zwolle's deficit. PEC Zwolle had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Feyenoord's 22 (8 on target). Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 0.75 — Feyenoord 3.21. Corners: 1-12.