NEC Nijmegen2 - 1GO Ahead Eagles
NEC NijmegenWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 50', 57', 68' — and still finish +$343?
Match Overview
NEC Nijmegen hosted GO Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-1. Goals: N. Lebreton (12'), N. Lebreton (27'), S. Tengstedt (55'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 4 waves, achieving 92% precision with a net result of +$343.35 (ROI: +90.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GO Ahead Eagles -1.5. Average expected value was 23.2%, with a combined stake of $46. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 13.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$38.72. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** NEC Nijmegen leading 2-0 at 50'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GO Ahead Eagles -1. Average expected value was 63.6%, with a combined stake of $314. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 39.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$291.81. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** NEC Nijmegen leading 2-1 at 57'. S. Tengstedt scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 3.5 and GO Ahead Eagles -1.5. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 47.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$4.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 68' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** NEC Nijmegen leading 2-1 at 68'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GO Ahead Eagles -0.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 24.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$8.72.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles -1.5: AI saw 89.8% vs market's 42.6% (47.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles -1: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 51.5% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 51.5% (39.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 52.1% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles -1: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 52.4% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$150.30 (ROI: +93.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$150.23 (ROI: +93.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$38.72 (ROI: +84.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$4.10 (ROI: +41.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in NEC Nijmegen's favor. NEC Nijmegen had 36 shots (12 on target) versus GO Ahead Eagles's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 4.43 — GO Ahead Eagles 0.32. Corners: 13-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$150.30.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.8% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$150.30.
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