NAC Breda0 - 2Ajax
NAC BredaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 26', 35', 38' — and still finish +$874?
Match Overview
NAC Breda hosted Ajax in the Eredivisie, finishing 0-2. Goals: O. Gloukh (20'), O. Gloukh (21'), M. Godts (41'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$873.50 (ROI: +18.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.47 to 3.63.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Ajax leading 0-1 at 26'. O. Gloukh scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting NAC Breda +1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $2547. The sharpest edge was on NAC Breda +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$727.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Ajax leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NAC Breda +0.5. Average expected value was 40.8%, with a combined stake of $1166. The sharpest edge was on NAC Breda +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 38.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1166.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Ajax leading 0-1 at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1312.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda +0.5: AI saw 75.0% vs market's 36.4% (38.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda +0.5: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 36.4% (38.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda +1: AI saw 74.8% vs market's 45.5% (29.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda +1: AI saw 75.2% vs market's 46.5% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda +1: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 46.5% (28.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$467.00 (ROI: +20.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$406.50 (ROI: +18.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
NAC Breda had 6 shots (0 on target) versus Ajax's 2 (2 on target). Expected goals: NAC Breda 0.23 — Ajax 0.26. Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +18.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$467.00.
A positive result with +18.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$873.50. Top performer: Active Trader at +$467.00.
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