Heracles

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Groningen

Heracles hosted Groningen in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-2. Goals: D. van der Werff (3'), T. van Gilst (17'), T. Land (56'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 6 waves, achieving 74% precision with a net result of +$412.46 (ROI: +69.0%).

The Asian Handicap remained steady at 1; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.64 to 4.84.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen +1. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Groningen leading 0-1 at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heracles +1.5. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Heracles +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.2% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 19' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after T. van Gilst's equalizer at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen +1. Average expected value was 27.7%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Groningen +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 34'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Groningen +0.5 and Groningen. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $503. The sharpest edge was on Groningen +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 12.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 15 trades won, netting +$476.16. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 54'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $73. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.8% probability versus the market's implied 21.7% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4.6. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-73.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Groningen leading 1-2 at 58'. T. Land scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heracles +1. Average expected value was 22.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Heracles +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.50.

- **Minute 19'** — Asian Handicap Groningen +1: AI saw 69.6% vs market's 44.4% (25.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Heracles +1: AI saw 62.1% vs market's 42.1% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Groningen +0.5: AI saw 63.3% vs market's 51.0% (12.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Groningen +0.5: AI saw 63.3% vs market's 51.0% (12.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 33.8% vs market's 21.7% (12.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 6W/1L, +$172.10 (ROI: +90.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$129.94 (ROI: +46.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 6 trades, 5W/0L/1V, +$110.42 (ROI: +92.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)

Possession was 52–48 in Heracles's favor. Heracles had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Groningen's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Heracles 0.64 — Groningen 1.18. Corners: 9-5.