Heerenveen

2 - 1

Fortuna Sittard

Heerenveen hosted Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-1. Goals: P. Brittijn (12'), R. Meerveld (16'), M. Linday (74'). Fortuna Sittard received a red card (I. Pinto, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$2177.54 (ROI: +58.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 83' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Heerenveen leading 2-1 at 83'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Fortuna Sittard 0 and Heerenveen and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 34.5%, with a combined stake of $3730. The sharpest edge was on Fortuna Sittard 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 37.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2177.54.

- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard 0: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 42.6% (37.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Fortuna Sittard 0: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 42.6% (37.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Moneyline Heerenveen: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 48.8% (31.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 83'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 60.0% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 60.0% (27.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1099.76 (ROI: +58.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1077.78 (ROI: +58.4%)

Possession was 60%–37% in Heerenveen's favor. Heerenveen had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Fortuna Sittard's 12 (7 on target). Expected goals: Heerenveen 2.49 — Fortuna Sittard 0.73. Corners: 7-0.