Heerenveen0 - 0Ajax
HeerenveenWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 10', 35', 60' — and still finish +$64?
Match Overview
Heerenveen hosted Ajax in the Eredivisie, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 4 waves, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$64.27 (ROI: +15.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heerenveen +0.25. Average expected value was 49.8%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 22.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$30.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heerenveen +0.5. Average expected value was 32.5%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$4.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Heerenveen and Heerenveen +0.5. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $202. The sharpest edge was on Heerenveen +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 26.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-181.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.6%, with a combined stake of $139. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 47.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$210.87.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen +0.5: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 55.6% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen +0.5: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 58.8% (26.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen +0.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 58.8% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen +0.25: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 49.0% (22.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Heerenveen +0.25: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 50.0% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$41.27 (ROI: +28.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, +$30.20 (ROI: +50.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$4.80 (ROI: +80.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, $-12.00 (ROI: -6.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53–47 in Heerenveen's favor. Heerenveen had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Ajax's 21 (5 on target). Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.57 — Ajax 1.81. Corners: 9-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +15.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$41.27.
A positive result with +15.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$64.27. Top performer: Active Trader at +$41.27.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.